1 – The Defending Champs Eligible for Social Security
Dirk Nowitski is one of the best basketball players in the world. But even he may not be great enough to guide the Mavericks on a journey back to the promised land with the supporting cast he's left with in Dallas.
The 7-foot German exorcised his playoff demons last season when he and the Mavericks defeated the hated Heat to win the franchise's first title. But only a short six months later, the Mavericks seem to have aged a decade. They lost Tyson Chandler and J.J. Barea and replaced them with disgruntled former Laker Lamar Odom and the artist formerly known as Vince Carter.
Not the best trade off if you ask me. Chandler was the key cog in the suddenly potent Dallas defense a year ago, and Barea's contributions off the bench were integral in the Mavs postseason run.
Odom has a history of playing unmotivated basketball when he isn't happy, and the reigning sixth man of the year is far from joyful after a nasty public divorce with L.A. Carter is a shell of his former self, and while Jason Kidd and Shawn Marion exceeded expectations with their play a year ago, they're not getting any younger.
The Mavs are hoping young speedster Rodrigue Beaubois will turn into a solid option after showing flashes of brilliance at times in his short career. He's the only player on the roster other than newly acquired Delonte West that will get significant playing time and is under the age of 30.
With all that said, the Mavs still have Nowitski. As long as he stays healthy, Dallas will compete in the West. But lifting another trophy in June is extremely unlikely.
2 – Clip Show is the act to watch these days in L.A.
Chris Paul was destined to play in Hollywood this season. Everyone thought the Lakers did it again when they almost stole arguably the best pure point guard in the NBA shortly after the lockout ended.
David Stern stepped in, however, and we all know what happened after that. Regardless of my feelings on the whole debacle that was Paul's exit from New Orleans – I think Stern did a great disservice to the league and its fans, and I'm not a Lakers fan by any stretch of the imagination – he's now a Clipper and the rest of the Western Conference should be taking notice.
There is a new power in Los Angeles, and along with Blake Griffin and veteran point guard Chauncey Billups, the Clippers are poised to make a lot of noise this season. The last time Paul had a talented big man that can finish around the rim (Tyson Chandler) he averaged double figure assists in back-to-back season (11.6 and 11). Chandler averaged over 10 points per game for the only two years of his career while playing with Paul.
If CP3 had that affect on Chandler's game, it's scary to think about how good the pair of Paul and Blake Griffin could be. To truly demonstrate how good Paul is for those that haven't seen him play much, he took a team of nobody's in New Orleans to the playoffs last season and tested the Lakers in every game of their six-game series. He's played in 23 playoff games in his six-year NBA career and has averaged 22 points and 11.1 assists per game.
The other team that calls Staple Center home is in deep trouble. The Lakers are suddenly old and without the strong supporting cast that Kobe Bryant has grown accustomed to relying on.
Lamar Odom and Shannon Brown are no longer wearing the blue and gold, and Paul Gasol may as well be gone. When he isn't playing soft and uninspired this season, questions will surround the big man as to whether or not he even wants to play in L.A. anymore after almost being shipped out in the Paul trade.
Point guard play is the biggest issue on this team, followed closely by a nonexistent bench and an injury-prone big man in Andrew Bynum. It also doesn't look like Dwight Howard is going anywhere anytime soon, so it could be a disappointing season for Laker fans, especially if the recent Kobe wrist injury is serious.
3 – Unlikely pair
At first glance, the Thunder and Celtics don't seem to have anything in common. Boston has been a dominant force in the league for several years and Oklahoma City is a young upstart franchise.
But if you look a bit closer, you'll notice one important similarity between both squads: 2011-12 is an important window. For the Celtics, it's a last ditch effort to try and win a championship before the Big 3 is disbanded. For OKC, the West has never been so open for the taking, and it would serve the Thunder to take advantage before the Clippers realize their potential.
The Thunder have had the luxury of playing the role of underdog in years past, but now the target will be on their back. They're the consensus best team in the West and they have to prove they're ready to be top dogs. Russell Westbrook has to find his role on this team alongside, but #2 to Kevin Durant.
If those two can't figure things out, Westbrook could be shipped out. James Harden is a great fit on this team because he brings everything a team needs off the bench: energy, shooting, and defense. Look for him to grow into a better player this season and probably end the year in the starting rotation. He's too good not to have on the floor.
The Celtics are old but they may have enough left to make things tough for the Bulls and/or Heat. They upgraded at power forward, getting Brandon Bass for Glen Rice who always thought he was a better shooter than he actually was. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if he shoots the Magic out of a few games this season. The loss of Jeff Green is really going to hurt Big Green but Danny Ainge should be able to find someone to fill the role.
Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo are going to have to put up huge numbers and carry this team if they expect to make it to the Finals. I don't really see it happening.
4 – Teams on the rise
Almost every year there seems to be a team that comes out of the pile at the bottom of the standings to surprise NBA fans everywhere. I have tabbed two candidates for my breakout team of the year: the Sacramento Kings and Minnesota Timberwolves.
In the case of the Kings, there are two major problems surrounding a group of very talented players: there isn't anyone in the organization that can facilitate the offense and the team as a whole will probably finish in the bottom of the league in total defense.
So why do I think they can pull the shocker? I honestly think there is too much talent on this team for them not to figure out something. Tyreke Evans is back healthy and if he can return to rookie form that earned him rookie of the year in 2009-10, that alone will make the Kings at least relevant.
DeMarcus Cousins is one of the most talented young bigs in the league and I think he'll take a big step this season in terms of basketball skills and maturity – which has always been the knock on the former Kentucky Wildcat. Marcus Thornton is a great secondary scoring option and the most intriguing guy in the fray now for the Kings is college dynamo Jimmer Fredette. If he can contribute with his lethal shooting and underrated passing and playmaking, the Kings could make a play for the eight seed.
The Wolves have some really good young players. Will that equal their first winning season since 2004? Probably not. But they should be really fun to watch and they do employ one of the best forwards in the league in Kevin Love. Ricky Rubio is finally in the U.S. and seems ready to lead the Wolves.
The development of the Wolves' young players will be the true indicator of how successful a season Minnesota is capable. Wesley Johnson struggled last season, scoring only nine points per game in about 26 minutes. He was taken fourth overall in last year's draft and will have to start producing at a higher level if the Wolves are to improve.
Rookie Derrick Williams is arguably the most NBA-ready player to come out of July's draft. Look for him to take pressure off Love and the offensive-minded Michael Beasley. If new head coach Rick Adelman can get all these potential-packed parts working well together, Minnesota could be a playoff team in 2012.
5 – One man's roses is another man's wall
One is the reigning league MVP and the other may very well be a future MVP. But in 2011, the teams in which they play for are vastly different.
Rose is poised to take a run at the finals, as his team improved over the summer/fall/part of winter. The acquisition of Rip Hamilton from the Pistons should give the young playmaker some offensive help in the backcourt. It should allow him to not only improve his assist numbers, but also take some pressure off of his shoulders in terms of scoring.
Hamilton isn't a spring chicken, but can still fill it up if healthy and happy. And after a long drawn out divorce from Detroit, the former Connecticut Husky should be excited to get another chance to compete in the playoffs.
John Wall doesn't have much help in Washington. Javale McGee has tons of potential, but he is still young and isn't nearly the offensive presence the Wizards would need to compete against top teams in the East. Nick Young is a nice scorer and Rashard Lewis provides veteran leadership and some scoring (when he feels like it), but overall the Wizards are a year or two away from really competing.
Wall is a special talent though. He is able to take over games and has rare playmaking abilities. He is sure to improve on a memorable rookie season and could make a bid for the All Star game if he takes a big enough step forward. Unfortunately for the Wizards, they also play in the same division as the Heat, Magic, and Hawks.
With all that said, I simply wanted to note the entertainment value these two point guards provide. They are both must-see players and should be good for a couple hundred Sports Center moments this season between the two of them.
6 – Can ‘Melo and ‘Mare light up the big apple despite question marks?
So the Knicks let Chauncey Billups take his talents to Los Angeles and signed Tyson Chandler to help sure up their defense, which was incredibly suspect a year ago. Good moves?
Yes and no.
Chandler is a really nice signing and will help this team immediately if he stays healthy. He'll be especially useful in the playoffs. The major issue is that the Knicks overpaid to get him and now are hamstrung in terms of bringing in other top players to play alongside their version of the Big 3.
The loss of Billups isn't as big of a problem as many have made it out to be. The Knicks signed Baron Davis, who when healthy is a competent point guard, as long as he isn't in jack mode (launching 3-pointers like it's his job, which it isn't – especially on this team). Billups is a scoring point guard and the Knicks already have arguably too much scoring and not enough basketballs to go around.
The major difference between what the Heat did and what the Knicks are doing is that LeBron, Wade, and Bosh's games are all predicated on versatility. They can all score and take over games, but they can also get others involved and work off each other. Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire both need the ball in their hands to be effective offensively, and Stoudemire's numbers dipped last season after Anthony joined the Knicks.
Shawne Williams took his three-point shooting to New Jersey, which will impact the Knicks if they can't find a replacement shooter. Tony Douglas is a nice young player but he is a two guard trapped inside a point guard body. The Knicks need someone to get all their weapons the ball.
In the end the Knicks have too many great players not to be a factor, but it will take an awesome coaching job by Mike D'Antoni to elevate the Knicks in the East. Not sure if he's capable of that type of coaching, but we'll see.
7 – Best teams nobody is talking about (Denver and Memphis)
The Memphis Grizzlies had an unbelievable season a year ago. Thought to be a one-and-done after drawing the Spurs in the first round, the Grizzlies upset San Antonio to become only the fourth No. 8 seed to ever eliminate a No. 1 seed in the first round of the playoffs, and only the second ever in the seven-game first round format (Golden State over Dallas in 2007).
Memphis then went on to wage a seven-game classic battle against the Thunder before being eliminated in game seven. Even more impressive was the fact that the team did all that without star Rudy Gay who was lost to injury for the season.
The Grizzlies resigned Zach Randolph before the end of last season and re-upped Marc Gasol this past week. They should be a top threat in the West and are now a battle-tested team in the playoffs.
Denver lost its best player last season in Carmelo Anthony, which has turned out to be OK. After all, the Nuggets are arguably a better team post-Anthony if you can believe that.
The Nuggets acquired veteran point guard Andre Miller, resigned Nene who was free agency's top prize, and will get Wilson Chandler back before the playoffs when he finishes up his stint in China.
The Nuggets are deep, young, talented, and are a move or two away from being a top contender in the conference. Danilo Gallinari is a blossoming star in the mold of Dirk Nowitski and Aaron Afflalo – fresh off a new five-year contract – provides defense and shooting for a team that seems to have a lot of both already.
Look for both these squads to make some noise in the West this season.
8 – Who's going to beat the Heat?
Answer: Nobody.
After assembling their super team a year ago, the Miami Heat seem to be flying under the radar as the season approaches. Everybody hates LeBron a little less – which was bound to happen. Let's face it, the guy isn' t a criminal, he made a bad choice and he suffered the consequences in the pressure-cooker that was last season. But the dust has settled and the Heat are the obvious favorites to win the NBA title this season.
Chris Paul to the Clippers was the biggest and best acquisition of the free agent frenzy following the lockout. But the one move that I think has the biggest impact on a team is the Heat's signing of veteran forward Shane Battier.
The former Duke Blue Devil gives the Heat everything they lacked last season. A veteran presence that will knock down big shots and will play excellent defense. Battier's numbers were down last year overall, but his efforts in the playoffs helped the Grizzlies on their improbable and shocking postseason run, and more specifically, his defense against Kevin Durant in one of the best playoff series of recent memory was outstanding.
LeBron and Dwyane Wade will only become more comfortable playing together as their second season as teammates progresses. And that's a scary thought for the rest of the NBA. Many critics think Mario Chalmers is a question mark, but if he can play like he did in the NBA Finals on even a remotely consistent basis, the Heat should hoist what's sure to be one of several championship trophies in 2012.
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Photo: Ryan Hagen | UB Athletics
Photo: Paul Hokanson / UB Athletics
