I'd hate to bring down Buffalo's first sports-related high spirits since about week five of the NFL season, but seeing as no one else seems willing or able to examine the Williams signing in any sort of larger context or with any regard for recent NFL free agent history, it looks like I'm going to have to.
First off - is anyone else just a little bit concerned that the Bills just dropped $50 million in guaranteed money for a guy who's recorded double-digit sacks just twice in his NFL career?
Anyone?
I mean, "Super" Mario's obviously a pretty good player - not anywhere close to first-pick-of-the-whole-damn-draft good, obviously - but he's certainly pretty good. That being said, is he anywhere close to being $16 million a year good? Hell no.
Honestly, I feel Mario Williams is and has been one of the most overrated players of the past half-decade (cf. the whole double-digit sacks just twice in six years thing). If the NFL's pass rushers were the Mario pantheon, Williams would be Waluigi or Birdo or one of those other roster-padding pieces of intellectual property no one ever plays as in Mario Kart. This may seem like I'm cutting Williams way short, until you realize just how many pass rushers are as good or better than he is: DeMarcus Ware, James Harrison, Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeney, Cameron Wake, Jared Allen, Terrell Suggs, Tamba Hali, the Giants' Pierre-Paul and Tuck, the Eagles' Babin and Cole, a very young and promising Aldon Smith, and at least another guy or two I can't think to name.
Again, I'm not saying Williams is bad - he's certainly not Baby Princess Peach - but he's definitely not worth that $16 million a year either. He's no Super Mario (ba-dum tssh).
Just to bludgeon this point a little bit more for good measure, Williams, in his last healthy season, recorded a whopping nine sacks playing in the AFC South against the likes of Charlie Johnson and whoever the Jags' left tackle was at the time. Just nine sacks. In the AFC East, he's going to be facing off against D'Brickshaw Ferguson, Matt Light, and Jake Long - three of the five best tackles in the whole damn league. I understand that the Bills brought in Williams so they could have a viable pass-rushing threat against these guys, but, well, if Williams can't beat Charlie Johnson, what makes the Bills' higher-ups think he can beat Jake Long and Matt Light?
And even if Williams is way more talented than my appraisal of him might indicate, and really is a $16 million a year talent, what makes anyone think he's got a $16 million a year work ethic? You might be thinking "who are you to question Williams' work ethic?" and then make a disparaging mental comment about my facial hair, but the truth is a lot of players have this tendency to pack it in once they get their paydays. In just the last few years, big money turned Albert Haynesworth (remember him?) from the most feared player at his position to an out-of-shape prima donna and Chris Johnson from a fantasy football workhorse to an unmotivated underperformer.
And evenif Williams doesn't fall off a metaphorical cliff, performance-wise, we're left with the fact that, generally speaking, players tend to play less well after receiving a big contract (and better in the last year of a contract in hopes of getting a new, better contract). There's a Football Freakonomics episode about it on nfl.com, if you don't believe me. (Though this is the (ahem) reigning Spectrum Fantasy Football League champion you're talking to, so why wouldn't you believe me?)
Incidentally, I'm worried what a complacent season brought on by financial security from a guy who's only averaged 8.8 sacks a year now to be playing almost half his schedule against elite competition in a totally new system after coming off a major injury (don't forget that) might look like.
Ultimately, I must admit, I don't think Williams will totally pack it in - once again, he's a pretty good player. But, at the end of the day, the Bills totally overpaid for his services. That $16 million a year could have picked up two or three starters at other positions, even at hyper-inflated free agency prices. How about another receiver to pair with Stevie? Or maybe a competent offensive lineman or two - that would've been nice. Or maybe even a defensive lineman who doesn't cost as much as Tom Brady - who'd have thought, right?
Prediction: Williams records 7.5 sacks this year, is cut two to three years down the road because his cap number is too high, and ultimately leaves every gullible Bills fan who bought his jersey looking like a total dick.
Email: eabenoit@buffalo.edu
