Let the Playoffs Play Out

If you listen to any commentary about the NBA lately, you'd probably think that the playoffs don't matter that much.

It seems like the only thing any NBA commentator wants to do is pin down how many teams can win the title – and try to keep that number as low as possible.

When the season started, ESPN announcer Jeff Van Gundy stated that he believed only four teams could win the title. Think about that for a second. The season had just started, and already 26 teams had nothing to play for. How very depressing.

It wouldn't be so bad if Van Gundy was the only perpetrator of this nonsense, but he isn't. Just this week, an article on ESPN.com appeared stating that only two teams had a real shot. Why even have the playoffs?

Let's just have the Spurs play the Celtics right now. Or the Heat and the Lakers. Or the Mavericks and the Bulls. Or whichever teams you think can go the distance.

What I'm getting at here is that making these rash, dismissive predictions belittles the game. The NBA playoffs are one of the most exciting things in sports, and these commentators are taking all the fun out of it. When Charles Barkley goes on TNT and gives you his latest version of who the only real contenders are, just see if it doesn't bring you down a bit.

Of course, none of this would be so egregious if there was any bit of truth to it, but there really isn't. In recent years, the NBA playoffs have been full of surprises.

In each of the last two seasons, everyone thought the Cavs were headed to the Finals and LeBron was getting his first ring. Each year, they were taken down by an Eastern Conference foe that no one took seriously, and all those commentators looked like fools.

A similar situation happened in 2004. Everyone thought the Lakers, with their all-star team of Shaq, Kobe, Gary Payton, and Karl Malone, were unstoppable. Then, a scrappy Pistons team that had much better chemistry took them down easily.

Better yet, look at 2007. The favorite in the Western Conference was the Mavericks, who had dominated all season under the leadership of league MVP Dirk Nowitzki, who seemed destined for playoff glory.

What happened? They were sunk in the first round by a Golden State team no one had given a second thought to. Once again, every so-called expert in the country was made to look like an idiot by a basketball team that was a little tougher than they thought.

The point is, things aren't as cut and dry as they seem. It's easy to watch a game where LeBron scores 50, or Wade gets a triple-double and think, "Wow, the Heat are unstoppable," but that's not really how it works. The team that looks good now may not be built for playoff success.

As for 2011, no one knows how it will play out. Maybe the experts will get it right this time. Maybe an obvious pick like the Spurs will get the glory this year. Or maybe it'll be upstart team like the Thunder or the Bulls who end up having the right stuff when it matters. The point is, we won't know for sure until June, and all these NBA "experts" need to stop thinking they do.

E-mail: john.hugar@ubspectrum.com