If and when avian flu hits the United States, UB experts say its impact at the university would be hard to predict, but there is no reason to believe college students are at high risk.
Avian flu, also known as bird flu, has been a hot topic on newswires across the globe, with experts predicting a pandemic. The disease has killed half of the 130 people it's infected in Southeast Asia, and some wonder what could happen if it reached a college like UB where a cold spreads in a matter of days within the close quarters of dorms and apartments.
Timothy Murphy, a distinguished professor in UB's School of Medicine, said the rates of infection might be higher compared to that of the general population if there are crowded conditions. But Murphy and his colleagues agree there are no factors that make UB students more vulnerable than other local residents.
"There is no evidence that young adults would be more likely to catch bird flu," Murphy said. "However, if the virus acquires the ability to be transmitted from person to person, then people who live in close quarters with one another may be at increased risk once someone in the group becomes infected."
As of now, the virus doesn't have the ability to transmit from human to human, but many experts say it might only be a matter of time before that happens. The human death toll has been relatively low, but the bird populations of Asia and Europe have been devastated.
The severity of such an epidemic is also impossible to ascertain. Mortality may be as high as 80 percent, though a lower rate is probably more realistic. Murphy pointed out that bird flu death rates reported by the media might be an overestimate.
"The H5N1 (avian influenza) infections that have occurred in humans in southeastern Asian countries have a mortality of approximately 50 percent," he said. "However, this is likely an overestimate because milder infections may go unnoticed and this skews the mortality estimates."
In fact, the number of deaths reported represents only a tiny fraction of humans infected with the virus, according to Richard Lee, UB professor of medicine and pediatrics. Evidence suggests that a vast majority of people exposed to the virus show little or no symptoms and they consequently don't report their illness to local health authorities.
Lee said that workers culling birds in Hong Kong during a 1997-1998 avian flu outbreak had an eight percent seroconversion rate, meaning that the people who got really sick and died were only the very top of the infection iceberg.
"I expect that there are larger numbers of people who have gotten infected but either had only mild illness or no illness at all," he said.
Due to the uncertainties surrounding the virus, UB officials do not have a plan specifically tailored toward bird flu.
Thomas Tiberi, senior associate director for University Apartments, said an outbreak of avian flu would be dealt with depending on its scale and severity. UB officials will follow guidelines provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Student Health Services.
"If one or two students in a dormitory become infected, the student would first of all go to the hospital," Tiberi said. "The people who had contact with that particular student will be treated or monitored."
In the event of a catastrophic outbreak with large numbers of students from different residence halls coming down with the illness, more drastic measures may be necessary.
"We have emergency plans in place. Students can be evacuated to Alumni Arena or Clark Hall gym. We have a contract with a biohazard cleanup company," Tiberi said. "Everything is prepaid. So, if we call, they'll come right away. A quarantine, if necessary, is also certainly not out of the question."
Currently, there are no vaccines available for bird flu, though antiviral drugs have been used to alleviate its symptoms. In Vietnam, one of the countries most severely affected by the disease, government officials reported a shortage of Tamiflu, a common antiviral drug.
"Vaccines for avian influenza are not yet available but there is active research in this area," Murphy said. "The federal government recently appropriated $7.1 billion to influenza preparedness. Some of those funds are going toward vaccine development and more efficient vaccine production."
William Ruyechan, director of the Interdisciplinary Graduate Program and a microbiology professor, warned against self-medicating in the event that the disease spreads here.
"While some drugs are available, the H5N1 strain is resistant to a few of them and widespread indiscriminate use of the others will likely lead to additional resistant strains, so caution is advised in their use," he said.
One of the best things anyone can do to be prepared, Murphy said, is to stay aware and educated, and keep up personal hygiene.
"If there is an avian influenza pandemic, it is likely that voluntary quarantine measures will be implemented. It will be important for all of us to pay attention to these guidelines and follow them," he said.
Photo: Meredith Forrest Kulwicki
