I'm graduating in about two weeks. I've heard its fashionable to spend your last column reminiscing and giving advice. Really, if after I graduate, people still use "Governerds" and "Smellicott" I'll be happy. Everything else is gravy. I could go on for a while about this university, but there are more important things going on in 2004 than the fact that UB's North Campus needs more trees (something that will be remedied when I'm a philanthropist).
In the last two months I've seen George Bush, John Edwards, John Kerry and Al Sharpton give speeches. In addition to some awesome souvenirs, I've heard a lot of different policy proposals that will drastically alter the shape of America starting in January of 2005.
If George W. Bush wins in 2004, it will be the penultimate for right politics. Few other people in the party can sell that far-right of a platform as well as Bush can, and none of the stewards are president material: Dick Cheney, Tom DeLay, Bill Frist or any cabinet members. The other prominent Republicans are much more moderate: John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and even Arnold Schwarzenegger.
When you might be on your last legs, you go all out. If you aren't trying to portray yourself as a moderate to win another election, you can do whatever you want, especially if you control Congress.
What would be on the plate? First off, at least one Supreme Court justice could retire, giving Bush the opportunity to appoint someone who would roll back not only a woman's right to choose, but also the Fourth and Fifth amendments, plus separations between church and state.
Next, according to former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich, economic policy will be tilted more toward the rich, with a tax base shifted almost completely to the middle and lower classes, prompting cuts in almost every area of spending not named "defense." The Patriot Act continuations will allow for an executive branch to imprison people before a verdict without providing any information. That was the highlight of Bush's speech in Buffalo on Tuesday. Everyone applauded.
Since his college days of avoiding Vietnam at Harvard Business School, Bush has "opposed to labor unions, social security, environmental protection, Medicare and public schools," according to a professor of his at the time.
No matter who is president, some things will stay the same. It is impossible to say what will happen in Iraq, since we're going to toss them in the pool and hope they can swim on June 30. Whoever is president will continue fighting the war on terror in Afghanistan, though a Kerry coalition would have more international success.
Unless Bush wants America to completely collapse, he will be forced to raise taxes in 2005, as the current deficits are unsustainable. Kerry is more likely to focus new taxation on unearned income like dividends, estates and capital gains. The Bush tax hikes will be extremely regressive, as demonstrated by the tax cuts put in place in 2001 and 2002.
That's about where the similarities end.
John Kerry is certainly not going to do anything as rash on the left like Bush will do on the right. There's a low chance that Kerry will make a push for universal health care, especially now that a bill to import drugs from Canada has bipartisan support, and both parties are starting to realize that drug companies are out of control in the states, and the best way to combat them might be to actually push for the things you are going to take advantage of in other countries.
While a Republican victory will probably push Democrats to the left since the standard will be moved so far to the right, that standing still will be perceived as left wing advocacy, a Democratic victory will have a very interesting effect on the current GOP.
Although the moderate faction of McCain, Giuliani and the Senators from Maine are supporting Bush's reelection bid, there is no telling what they may do if he and Karl Rove are out of the picture. There might be a power struggle, followed by a resurgence of Republican politicians calling for smaller government and a responsible budget, something foreign to this Bush administration.
A lot is going to change, and we all have a say in how it goes.
I've had a lot of fun writing editorials and columns here for two years. Hopefully I've taught nearly as much as I've learned. It's been a pleasure.
