America is a vast nation with a diverse people, but some things about us are generally true -- we like our beer cold, our cars big and our presidents presidential.
Before most of us judge a candidate on the issues, we ask more fundamental questions, such as "Does he or she look like a president?" or "Does he or she act like a president?"
Take President George W. Bush, for example. Ask a liberal Democrat why he or she hates Bush, and you're likely to hear a complaint about his "beady eyes" or "broken English" rather than a critique of tax cuts or the pre-emptive strike policy.
Now, as ordinary Americans are starting to follow the Democratic primary, the "Is he or she presidential?" question is quickly becoming the factor on which the primary will turn.
Consider the contrasting fortunes of two candidates for the Democratic nomination: Howard Dean and John Kerry.
At a rally in a New Hampshire student union last Wednesday, Dean bellowed out the name of several states and then, with a violent sweeping arm motion, reared back and screamed "YEEAAGGGH!"
Later that day Dean was further embarrassed when his "I Have A Scream" speech was remixed to a techno beat and sent all over the nation.
Before his little "moment," Dean already had trouble appearing presidential (he called Russia "the Soviet Union" on a Sunday talk show). Now his flagging campaign is probably finished. Americans don't want their president going to North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il, for instance, and screaming, "Get rid of your missiles! And your nukes! And your propaganda! YEEAAGGGH!"
Even Mick Foley, the former commissioner of the (former) World Wrestling Federation, said Dean's speech was too much for him.
"It appeared to me like he was a guy who had lost his mind," Foley said. "I don't know if 'president' and 'maniacal' are two words that are supposed to go hand in hand."
While Dean is flagging, John Kerry is rallying. The day before the Iowa caucuses - which Kerry won - the candidate appeared in public with a man whose life he saved in Vietnam, giving him a boost in the polls.
Some "Deanieboppers" say Kerry's establishment credentials (he has been a Massachusetts senator longer than most UB freshmen have been alive) will be a liability because voters are looking for change.
But the activist segment of the party is already involved. Mainstream voters are more likely to judge the candidates on the kind of intangible qualities Kerry has in abundance.
Well over six feet tall, he has a regal bearing. His public speech is eloquent. And his craggy bloodhound face looks like it could be on the next $20 bill.
Partly because of the Kerry/Dean dichotomy, the Democratic primary has evolved into a compelling contest.
But according to some pundits and talking heads, it doesn't matter. Prevailing wisdom says Bush will cruise to victory in November no matter who gets the nomination.
However, the mercurial history of presidential politics should warn us to be skeptical of pundits who speak in absolutes. The beauty of politics is that the only thing one can expect is the unexpected.
All of us remember that Bill Clinton won the 1992 election, but most of us have forgotten that in June -- five months before the vote -- Clinton was polling behind both George Bush and Ross Perot.
This time around, the polls are much closer - and it's much earlier. It's still January, and most polls show Bush with a two- to four-point lead over a "generic Democratic candidate." Bush's approval rating hovers around 50 percent. Polls say his strongest issue, the war on terror, is slowly fading from the American political consciousness.
His State of the Union speech - with its repeated warnings that we should still fear terrorism - was the speech of a man nervous about November. And as he railed against gay marriage and "activist judges," his furtive glances revealed desperation.
Bush and his people show a lot of hubris in public. But in politics hubris is suicide.
In a few weeks, everything can change. If Bush's people don't believe it, they can ask Howard Dean.
November's going to be close.
Bring it on.
Photo: Meredith Forrest Kulwicki
